Supercomputer Predicts Manchester United’s Relegation Chances

Manchester United’s dismal form has sparked relegation fears for the first time since 1974, but how real is the threat? A supercomputer analysis provides insight into the Red Devils’ chances of survival.

Ruben Amorim Acknowledges Relegation Battle

Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim has admitted the club is embroiled in a relegation scrap following a series of poor performances.

Recent Form and Position

• Manchester United sit 14th in the Premier League.
• They are seven points above the relegation zone at the halfway mark of the 2024/25 season.
• The team has endured four consecutive defeats in all competitions, including a chastening 2-0 loss to Newcastle.

Amorim’s comments underscore the gravity of the situation:
“It is a really difficult moment, one of the more difficult moments in the history of Manchester United, and we have to address it with honesty.”

Supercomputer Analysis: Relegation Odds

Despite the slump, a supercomputer simulation by Opta paints a relatively optimistic picture for United’s survival.

Key Statistics from the Simulation

• Out of 10,000 simulations, Manchester United were relegated in just 15 instances (0.15%).
• United have 22 points at the halfway stage, projecting them to finish with 44 points if they maintain their current form.
• Under Ruben Amorim, their 0.88 points-per-game rate would result in a 39-point total by season’s end.

While 36 points is generally enough to avoid relegation, history shows six teams with 39+ points have been relegated, most recently Blackpool in 2010/11.

A Season of Decline

Manchester United’s worst Premier League season to date was in 2021/22, when they finished with 59 points. By comparison, this season is on track to be a historic low.

Comparison with Recent Relegations

• Luton Town were relegated last season with just 26 points.
• United’s projected points tally would still rank far above the recent relegation thresholds.

What Lies Ahead for Manchester United?

United are projected to finish 12th, according to Opta, but the January transfer window could heavily influence their trajectory.

Key Fixtures Ahead

• 16 January: Southampton visit Old Trafford, aiming to deepen United’s struggles.
• A string of poor results could further test the club’s resilience and Amorim’s management.