Supercomputer Predicts 2024/25 Champions League Knockout Stage and Winner

Champions League Knockout Play-offs Begin

The first-ever Champions League knockout play-off round is about to start, featuring high-stakes matchups between some of Europe’s biggest clubs. One of the most anticipated clashes is between Manchester City and Real Madrid, while two Premier League clubs are among the favorites to win the tournament.

Despite criticism of the new format from Arne Slot, Pep Guardiola, and Florentino Perez, the group stage provided plenty of excitement, with only eight goalless draws in 144 matches. Now, teams that finished between 9th and 24th in the standings will compete for a place in the Round of 16.

As the knockout stage begins, Opta’s supercomputer has predicted the outcomes of each play-off tie and the overall tournament winner.

Champions League Knockout Play-offs: Predictions and Probabilities

One of the biggest matchups of this round is Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, marking their fifth knockout stage encounter in six seasons. Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti admitted his concerns about facing City, saying, “We don’t like playing against them.”

Opta’s model gives Real Madrid a slight edge, with a 53.1 percent chance of advancing. Even Guardiola acknowledged Madrid’s strength before the draw, stating, “They are better than us right now.”

Paris Saint-Germain enters their all-French tie against Brest as the strongest favorites, with an 85.7 percent chance of qualification after winning both league meetings this season.

Bayern Munich, who avoided a showdown with Manchester City, now face Celtic with a 73.1 percent chance of progressing. Thomas Müller expressed his confidence after the draw, saying, “Let’s rock it!”

Elsewhere, PSV Eindhoven manager Peter Bosz commented, “Juventus is a strong opponent, but we believe we are better than them.” However, Opta disagrees, favoring Juventus with a 55.6 percent chance of advancing.

Milan, who strengthened their squad by signing Feyenoord’s star striker Santiago Gimenez, are given a 65.7 percent chance of eliminating the Dutch side.

Atalanta, benefiting from the presence of former Club Brugge player Charles De Ketelaere, is heavily favored to win their tie.

Play-off Round Predictions

Supercomputer’s Champions League Winner Prediction

While some teams are still fighting for a place in the Round of 16, eight clubs have already secured their spots in the next phase.

Liverpool are considered the strongest title contenders, winning the competition in 24.6 percent of Opta’s simulations. Arsenal, still seeking their first-ever Champions League trophy, follow at 16.6 percent, while Inter (14.5 percent) and Barcelona (9.5 percent) round out the top four.

Despite being the defending champions, Real Madrid’s tough path to the final gives them only a 4.4 percent chance of retaining the trophy. Surprisingly, Manchester City ranks 10th, with just a 3.2 percent likelihood of winning the competition again.

Champions League Title Contenders

Will Liverpool claim their seventh European Cup, or can Arsenal finally win their first Champions League title?

Share Your Thoughts

Do you agree with Opta’s predictions?
Which underdog team has the best chance to surprise everyone?
Can Manchester City prove the supercomputer wrong?

Leave your predictions in the comments below.