Premier League Top Four Race: The Key Matchdays That Could Shape the Final Standings

A Tight Battle for Champions League Qualification

As the 2024/25 Premier League season heads toward its final weeks, the race for a top-four finish is more competitive than ever. While Liverpool seems destined to secure a Champions League spot, Arsenal and the surprise package, Nottingham Forest, are in strong positions to join them. However, the battle for the final UCL place remains wide open.

Currently, Chelsea sits in fourth, but with just five points separating them from 10th-placed Bournemouth, the fight for the last Champions League berth promises to be dramatic. A mix of traditional giants and overachievers are vying for European football, making certain matchdays crucial in determining the final standings.

Let’s take a closer look at the decisive fixtures that could shape the Premier League’s top-four race.

Matchday 30: A Defining Week in the Chase

With seven teams—ranging from Chelsea to Bournemouth—still in contention for fourth place, Matchday 30 will be a pivotal round.

• Arsenal vs. Fulham – The Gunners will be heavy favorites, but Fulham has a history of pulling off surprises against London rivals.
• Brighton vs. Aston Villa – Both sides are in the mix, making this a must-win fixture for their top-four ambitions.
• Newcastle vs. Brentford – Newcastle, buoyed by their Carabao Cup triumph, will look to capitalize on their game in hand.
• Manchester City vs. Leicester City – A relatively straightforward match for City against a struggling Leicester side.
• Bournemouth vs. Ipswich Town – Bournemouth will aim to keep their momentum going against a newly promoted team.
• Chelsea vs. Tottenham – Perhaps the biggest game of the round, Chelsea faces their fierce London rivals in a high-stakes clash. Their thrilling 4-3 win earlier this season sets the stage for another classic.

Matchday 33: Direct Battles for UCL Places

Two head-to-head clashes between top-four hopefuls will make Matchday 33 a defining moment in the race.

• Aston Villa vs. Newcastle – Both teams have recently tasted Champions League football and know how valuable it is.
• Fulham vs. Chelsea – The Cottagers defeated Chelsea earlier in the season and will be determined to do so again.

Additionally, other crucial matches include:

• Brentford vs. Brighton – Brentford remains an outside contender for fourth place.
• Everton vs. Manchester City – Everton held City to a draw at the Etihad and will look to cause another upset.
• Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace – A tricky away fixture for Bournemouth in their European push.

Matchday 35: Pressure Reaches Its Peak

With only a few weeks remaining, every point will be vital.

• Manchester City vs. Wolves – A comfortable fixture on paper for City, but Wolves have frustrated big teams in the past.
• Aston Villa vs. Fulham – A high-stakes encounter that could determine which side stays in the fight.
• Bournemouth vs. Arsenal – The Cherries face a tough challenge against a title contender.
• Brighton vs. Newcastle – Brighton has won both meetings this season, including an FA Cup thriller.
• Chelsea vs. Liverpool – Chelsea faces a daunting task against a potential Premier League champion.

Matchday 37: The Final Clues to the Top-Four Puzzle

As the season nears its conclusion, the contenders will be separated from the pretenders.

• Arsenal vs. Newcastle – Arsenal might have little to play for, but Newcastle will need points desperately.
• Tottenham vs. Aston Villa – Spurs seek revenge after Villa’s FA Cup victory earlier this year.
• Brighton vs. Liverpool – The Seagulls face a tough test against a top-tier opponent.
• Chelsea vs. Manchester United – A matchup between two struggling giants that could be decisive.
• Manchester City vs. Bournemouth – City will be wary after Bournemouth’s historic win earlier in the season.

Matchday 38: The Grand Finale

If the race remains undecided, the final day will deliver high drama.

• Fulham vs. Manchester City – Fulham has lost 17 straight against City, but can they pull off a shock?
• Manchester United vs. Aston Villa – A tricky away match for Villa with UCL football on the line.
• Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea – Chelsea’s fate could depend on this difficult fixture.
• Tottenham vs. Brighton – Both teams might have European ambitions at stake.
• Newcastle vs. Everton – Newcastle will be eager to secure their top-four hopes at home.
• Bournemouth vs. Leicester – The Cherries could seal their European fate against a potentially relegated Leicester side.

With such a tight race, every point will matter. Who do you think will claim the final Champions League spot?